Publications
Peer-reviewed publications
Holden P, Ngoma G, Visser M, Amekudzic LK, Amekugbe M, Boahen E, Borurue E, Bostironnois A, Dorda S, Ekaig DE, Forbes C, Gordon C, Humphrey G, Lartey D, Mngumi L, Mugoe JW, New M, Obiero L, Ouma G, van Aardenne L, Walawege R, Wolski P. submitted. Unlocking innovation in climate services through meaningful co-production for nature-based solutions. PNAS. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6760437/v1
Stadler L, Benya S, Ziervogel G, Holden P. under revision. Integrating intersectionality into climate risk assessments: Review of gendered vulnerability in South Africa. WIRES Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173152347.75935200/v1
Rebelo AJ, Glenday J, Holden PB, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Metho P, Tanner J. 2025. Structural differences across hydrological models affect certainty of predictions of nature-based solution benefits. Ecological Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110940
Holden PB, Anderson M, Eckardt F, Ziervogel G, Jack SL, New MG, Smit J, Visser M, Hoffman MT. 2024. Importance of methodological pluralism in deriving counterfactuals for evidence-based conservation. Conservation Biology 38. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14285
Simpson NP, Mach KJ, Tebboth MGL, Gilmore EA, Siders AR, Holden P, Anderson B, Singh C, Sabour S, Stringer LC, Sterly H, Williams PA, Meyer ALS, Cundill G, Rosengaertner S, Nunow A, Amakrane K, Trisos C. 2024. Research priorities for climate mobility. One Earth 7(4):589–607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.02.002
Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami R, Lawal K, Kimutai J, Nkemelang T, New MG. 2022. Nature-based solutions in mountain catchments reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Communications Earth & Environment 3:51. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00379-9
Rebelo AJ, Holden PB, Hallowes J, Eady B, Cullis J, Esler KJ, New MG. 2022. The hydrological impacts of restoration: a modelling study of alien tree clearing in four mountain catchments in South Africa. Journal of Hydrology 610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127771
Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, New MG. 2021. Mapping invasive alien trees in water towers: a combined approach using satellite data fusion, drone technology and expert engagement. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100448
Holden PB, Ziervogel G, Hoffman TM, New MG. 2021. Transition from subsistence grazing to nature-based recreation: A nuanced view of land abandonment in a mountain social-ecological system, southwestern Cape, South Africa. Land Use Policy 105: 105429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105429
Midgley SJE, Esler KJ, Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Stuart-Hill SI, Cullis JDS, Methner N. 2021. Typologies of collaborative governance for scalable nature-based solutions in two strategic South African river systems. Ambio 50: 587–609. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01531-z
Rebelo AJ, Gokool S, Holden PB, New MG. 2021. Can Sentinel-2 be used to detect invasive alien trees and shrubs in Savanna and Grassland Biomes? Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100600
Rebelo AJ, Holden PB, Esler KJ, New MG. 2021. Benefits of water-related ecological infrastructure investments to support sustainable land use: a review of evidence from two critically stressed water management areas in South Africa. Royal Society Open Science 8(4): 201402. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201402
Sellberg MM, Cockburn J, Holden PB, Lam D. 2021. Towards a caring transdisciplinary research practice: navigating science, society and self. Ecosystems and People 17(1): 292–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1931452
Holden PB, Smit J. 2019. Accuracy of automatic aerial triangulation with bundle block adjustment on large historical image blocks in mountainous terrain. South African Journal of Geomatics 8(1): 12–29. http://sajg.org.za/index.php/sajg/article/view/617
Otto FEL, Wolski P, Lehner F, Tebaldi C, van Oldenborgh GJ, Hogesteeger S, Singh R, Holden P, Fuckar NS, Odoulami RC, New M. 2018. Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017. Environmental Research Letters 13. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9
Bourne A, Holness S, Holden P, Scorgie S, Donatti CI, Midgley G. 2016. A socio-ecological approach for identifying and contextualising spatial ecosystem-based adaptation priorities at the sub-national level. PLoS ONE 11(5): e0155235. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155235
Crookes DJ, Blignaut JN, de Wit MP, Esler KJ, Le Maitre DC, Milton SJ, Mitchell SA, Cloete J, de Abreu P, Fourie H, Gull K, Marx D, Mugido W, Ndhlovu T, Nowell M, Pauw M, Rebelo A. 2013. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa. Journal of Environmental Management 120: 138–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.001
Book chapters
Holden P, Cockburn J, Shackleton S, Rosenberg E. 2019. Supporting and developing competencies for transdisciplinary postgraduate research: A PhD scholar perspective. In Kremers KL, Liepins AS, York AM (Eds) Developing Change Agents: Innovative Practices for Sustainability Leadership. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing. https://open.lib.umn.edu/changeagents/chapter/supporting-and-developing-competencies/
Bourne A, Pasquini L, Donatti CI, Holden P, Scorgie S. 2017. Strengthening the role of local authorities to support community-based adaptation: The case of South Africa. In Atela J, Huq S, Ochieng C, Orindi V, Owiyo T (Eds) Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries Through Community-Based Adaptation. African Centre for Technology Studies. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319208951_Strengthening_the_role_of_local_authorities_to_support_community-based_adaptation_The_case_of_South_Africa
Technical research reports
Marthews T, Feeney C, Holden P, Onyeagoziri A. 2025. NbS-TISE: Nature-based solutions tool for assessing the full impact of soil erosion. UKCEH Internal Report for the NC-International Programme. https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539194/1/N539194CR.pdf
Holden P, Hoffman T, Wolski P, Humphrey G, Onyeagoziri A, Visser V. 2024. Towards equitable and sustainable nature-based solutions in Southern Africa’s water towers (TES NbS): Final technical report. International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Grant Number: 109567–001. https://hdl.handle.net/10625/63535
Glenday J, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Holden P, Rebelo A, Tanner J, Jumbi F, Metho P. 2022. Critical catchment model inter-comparison and model use guidance development. Water Research Commission.https://www.wrc.org.za/wp-content/uploads/mdocs/2927_Final%20Report.pdf
Popular articles
Holden P, New M. 2024. Working with nature to reduce the impacts of climate change. Frontiers for Young Minds: science for kids, edited by kids. https://kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frym.2024.1412419
Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami RC, Lawal KA, Kimutai J, Nkemelang T, New MG. 2022. Clearing alien trees can help reduce climate change impact on Cape Town’s water supply. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/3wspj7he
Rebelo AJ, Esler KJ, New MG, Holden PB. 2022. Removing alien plants can save water: we measured how much. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/yjw4a6u2
Rebelo AJ, Le Maitre DC, New MG, Johnston P, Holden PB, Nkemelang T, Rebelo T. 2019. What science tells us about fire hazards facing Cape Town and its surrounds. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/2p9h375h
Midgley GM, de Abreu P. 2013. Anticipating the physical climate change impacts in South Africa. Guest Comment. The South African business response to climate change: Is it delivering the required performance? Carbon Disclosure Project, South Africa, Climate Change Report, National Business Initiative. https://tinyurl.com/ehf7fm8d
Blignaut J, Crooke D, de Abreu P, Ndhlovu T, Pauw M, Vlok H, Mugido W, Makumbe M, Nowel M. 2010. Restoration in South Africa – site 1, restoration of the natural veld in the Little Karoo. Quest 6: 26–30. https://tinyurl.com/2p87xskv
Policy and practice briefs, including info-briefs and infographics and process outputs
Holden P. 2025. How do we know that nature-based solutions can contribute towards climate change adaptation? University of Cape Town. Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.28644077.v1
Mokono K, Holden P, von Maltitz G, Nsikani M, Gambiza J, Kgope B, Turpie J, Abrams A, Arena G, Mathebula N, Mokoka V, Mugwedi L, Rebelo A. 2024. Research themes for Ecosystem-based Adaptation in South Africa. South African National Biodiversity Institute Policy Series. Policy Brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27370614.v2
Stadler L, Benya S, Ziervogel G, Holden P, Hoffman T. 2024. An intersectional climate risk framework: understanding gendered climate vulnerability in South Africa. University of Cape Town. Info-brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27716283.v1
Holden P, and Hoffman T. 2024. Why do we need clear guidelines on how to achieve social equity in nature-based approaches? Infographic, https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073765.
Humphrey G, Hoffman T, and Holden P. 2024. What are the main constraints to achieving social equity in nature-based approaches in the UMzimvubu? Infographic, english: http://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073588; isiXhosa: http://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073549.
Holden P, New M. 2024. Nature-based solutions can cushion the local impacts of climate change. Info-brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.25718571.v1
Holden P, Hoffman T. 2024. Achieving social equity in nature-based solutions. Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.25218395.v1
Holden P, Hoffman T, Djenontin INS, Esler K, Gannon K, Humphrey G, Mbidzo M, Mtati N, New M, Ndlovu V, Razafimanantsoa AHI, Rebelo AJ, Savory S, Thorn JPR, Visser M, Ziervogel G. 2023. Stories of social (in)equity in nature-based solutions”. Storybook. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.24720285.v1
Glenday J, Rebelo AJ, Holden P, Metho P, Tanner JL, Gwapedza D, Gokool S, Jumbi F. 2023. Deep waters: How ignoring uncertainty in hydrological modelling increases water security risk. Policy Brief. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24658755.v1
Blanckenberg M, Hoffman T, Holden P. 2022. What is needed in southern Africa to ensure equitable nature-based solutions. Workshop Summary. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.22003904.v1
Coldrey K, Cullis J, Esler K, Fold N, Gokool S, Hallowes J, Holden P, Methner N, Midgley S, New M, Olesen RS, Pasgaard M, Rasmussen LV, Rebelo A, Shackleton S. 2022. Ecological infrastructure for water and socio-economic security. Investment Brief. https://tinyurl.com/4bjk6yhj
Glenday J, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Holden P, Rebelo A, Tanner J, Jumbi F, Metho P. 2022. Hydromodel SA Wiki: guidance for researchers and practitioners working on hydrological modelling projects in South Africa. Wikipedia Site. https://hydromodel-sa-wiki.saeon.ac.za/wiki/Main_Page
Holden P, Hoffman T, Shackleton S. 2022. A focus on constraints and enablers of social equity in nature-based solutions can help to address societal challenges”. Framework and Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19354070.v2
Pasgaard M, Coldrey K, Cullis J, Esler K, Fold N, Gokool S, Hallowes J, Holden P, Methner N, Midgley S, New M, Olsen RS, Rasmussen LV, Rebelo A, Shackleton S. 2022. How can investment in ecological infrastructure increase water security and alleviate poverty? Policy Brief. https://tinyurl.com/bdynbe76
Datasets
Holden P, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami R, Lawal KA, Kimutai J, New MG. 2022. Nature-based solutions reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Dataset and code.
Rebelo AJ, Gokool S, Holden PB. 2021. Mapping invasive alien trees and shrubs in strategic water source areas in the Umgeni Catchment. Spatial dataset. https://tinyurl.com/yny5ayc4
Rebelo A, Holden P. 2020. Mapping land-use/land-cover in strategic water source areas in the Upper Berg and Breede Catchments. Spatial dataset. https://tinyurl.com/2ae9jbnb
Holden P, Rebelo A. 2019. Mapping invasive alien trees in strategic water source areas in the Berg and Breede Catchments. Spatial dataset. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dM7dAnYCUsB3ia8yJT5Ph2iO374_azqI/view